If Climate Change Continues, How High Could Energy Bills Go?

Electricity bills have always fluctuated, but climate change is creating new pressures that could permanently increase what we pay to power our homes. As global temperatures rise, the demand for cooling grows, especially in hot-weather states like Texas. Using 50 years of temperature and energy price data, this study projects what might happen to electricity costs if current warming trends continue. The findings are a wake-up call for households, utilities, and policymakers alike.

Key Takeaways

• Global temperatures have risen 2.5°F (1.4°C) since the mid-1970s.
• Since the mid-1970s, the warmest decade in the U.S. has been the 2020s (~55.2°F), while the coolest was the 1970s (~52.9°F).
• The contiguous U.S. has warmed by roughly 2.3°F (1.3°C) in the same 50-year period.
• Average U.S. electricity prices have risen nearly 400% in nominal terms since the mid-1970s.
• If current trends continue, hotter summers could drive household electricity bills 10–20% higher by 2075.Global Temperatures Have Climbed Steadily Over 50 Years

Global Temperatures Have Climbed Steadily Over 50 Years

Globally, the Earth has warmed by roughly 2.5°F (1.4°C) since the mid-1970s. The sharpest global temperature increases occurred during the 1980s and the 2010s, when average temperatures climbed by about 0.4°F per decade.

In the United States, this warming trend has been even more pronounced. Over the last five decades, the contiguous U.S. average annual temperature has increased by more than 2°F, with a total rise of approximately 2.3°F (1.3°C).

*2020s’ values are based on year-to-date averages through 2025.

The 2020s have been the hottest decade so far, averaging around 55.2°F, while the 1970s were the coolest, at 52.9°F. This steady increase reveals how each passing decade is warmer than the last, reflecting both global and domestic climate trends.

Looking at individual years, 2012 stands out as the hottest year on record in the U.S., averaging 50.2°F, while 1979 remains one of the coolest at 42.4°F.

Five Decades of Climbing Energy Costs Show What’s Coming Next

Over the past five decades, electricity prices in the U.S. have surged nearly 400%. In 1975, the average cost of electricity was under 3.5¢ per kilowatt-hour. By 2025, that cost is projected to reach 17.47¢, a fourfold increase.

The sharpest annual jump in electricity prices occurred from 2021 to 2022, when rates spiked by 1.38¢ per kilowatt-hour. This reflects not only inflation, but also the compounding effect of extreme weather and energy infrastructure stress. On the flip side, 1998 saw the biggest drop, when rates dipped by 0.17¢ per kilowatt-hour.

With higher temperatures driving up energy demand, especially in warmer regions, these costs may keep rising, even beyond inflation adjustments.

How Rising Heat Could Impact Energy Costs by 2075

As global temperatures continue to climb, so does the demand for energy, especially electricity. Warmer summers mean more air conditioners running longer and harder, which puts pressure on power grids and household budgets alike. But just how much hotter will it get, and what could that mean for our energy bills in the decades ahead?

How Much Hotter Will It Be by 2075?

If current climate trends continue, global average temperatures could rise between 1.8°F–3.6°F (1°C–2°C) by 2075 compared to today. That may sound small, but in climate terms, it’s significant. It’s enough to transform weather patterns, lengthen heatwaves, and make extreme summer days far more common.

In the United States, where land areas warm faster than the global average, summers could heat up by 3°F–6°F (1.7°C–3.3°C) above late 20th-century levels. Regions that already experience sweltering heat could face even sharper increases. According to projections from NOAA and the World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal, the number of days above 90°F is expected to rise substantially across most U.S. cities.

In short, by 2075, summers are likely to be noticeably hotter across the globe, and in the U.S., they could be some of the hottest in recorded history.

Why Rising Heat Means Rising Energy Bills

The link between temperature and electricity costs is straightforward: the hotter it gets, the more we cool.

According to the EPA, hotter summers increase electricity use across the country as air conditioners work harder and for longer hours. But that’s not the only factor driving costs higher.

1. Increased Cooling Demand

Households will consume more power to stay comfortable. Cooling degree days, a measure of how much air conditioning is needed, are rising across nearly every U.S. state. As a result, average summer electricity usage is expected to keep climbing.

2. Peak Load Pressures

Extreme heat drives up demand during certain hours of the day, leading to record-breaking energy loads. Utilities must build and maintain enough capacity to handle these peaks, which can lead to higher rates for everyone.

3. Infrastructure and Grid Upgrades

To keep the grid stable during heatwaves, utilities are investing billions in infrastructure upgrades and fire prevention measures. By the first quarter of 2025, utilities had requested or received regulatory approval for rate increases totaling approximately $20 billion.

What Could This Mean for Future Bills?

If today’s warming and price trends continue, household electricity costs could increase by 10–20% by 2075, even after adjusting for inflation. Families in hotter climates, particularly in the South and Southwest, may see even greater jumps.

Recent estimates from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA) suggest that the average U.S. household paid about $784 for electricity during the summer of 2025, up from $737 in 2024. That’s roughly 6% year-over-year increase, largely attributed to hotter weather and higher rates.

By 2075, the pattern is clear: as summers get hotter, bills will keep climbing, not only because of higher demand, but also because utilities will continue investing in the infrastructure needed to withstand climate stress.

The Economic Cost of a Warming World

In addition to being an environmental issue, climate change is also an economic one. This analysis shows how rising temperatures are already increasing electricity costs and will likely continue to do so for decades. If warming trends hold, households may face even higher energy bills as utilities grapple with more extreme weather and increasing demand. Planning for a hotter, more energy-intensive future starts now.

Methodology

This study analyzed temperature and energy cost trends over a 50-year period (1975–2025) to understand the relationship between climate change and electricity demand. Global and U.S. temperature data were sourced from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), which track long-term surface temperature anomalies using instrumental global climate records dating back to 1850.

Energy price data were obtained from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), specifically its “Electric Power Monthly” and “Annual Energy Review” reports, which provide historical and current average retail electricity prices. Electricity cost trends were evaluated using the EIA’s “Average Retail Price of Electricity to Ultimate Customers” data, expressed in nominal cents per kilowatt-hour (¢/kWh).

Data were normalized by decade to visualize long-term patterns in temperature and pricing. All projections for 2025–2075 are extrapolated based on historical warming rates (NOAA) and retail price trajectories (EIA), assuming current emissions and demand growth trends continue.

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